Geopolitical Jitters May Dent Grameenphone Revenue by 2% in Q1
Grameenphone, one of the country’s leading listed telecommunications operators, has expressed concern that ongoing geopolitical instability in the Middle East and volatility in global energy markets could negatively impact its business. On Tuesday, March 24, the operator informed investors that its revenue for the first quarter of the current year (January–March) may decline by approximately 2 percent.
In a disclosure published on the Dhaka Stock Exchange, the company stated that uncertainty in international energy and LNG markets has put pressure on supply chains, increased import costs, and disrupted transportation and logistics. These factors are affecting the country’s macroeconomic environment, which may directly influence the company’s operational expenses and customer behavior.
Grameenphone noted that while its network and services remain stable, the rapidly changing global situation is impacting consumer purchasing power and spending patterns. Business activities are slowing somewhat, and mobility among people is also being affected. The company added that intense seasonal storms are further complicating the situation, and these combined pressures could negatively affect overall demand and revenue flow.
In its forward outlook, Grameenphone projected that its revenue for the first quarter of the 2026 financial year (January–March) may decline by around 2 percent compared to the same period last year, while earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) could fall by up to 3 percent. For reference, in the first quarter of the 2025 financial year, the company reported revenue of Tk 3,834 crore 52 lakh and a net profit after tax of Tk 633 crore 93 lakh. Based on this benchmark, the anticipated decline signals a cautionary outlook for investors.
The company emphasized that the current situation remains highly uncertain and rapidly evolving. It is closely monitoring developments and taking necessary measures to mitigate potential risks. Ensuring uninterrupted service, maintaining network quality, and preserving operational stability remain key priorities. At the same time, efforts are underway to control costs, diversify suppliers, and implement recovery plans to reduce risks.
According to the company’s assessment, rising fuel and transportation costs could reduce consumer spending capacity, potentially affecting demand for mobile services and value-added offerings. Severe seasonal storms and supply chain disruptions may also place additional pressure on network operations and service delivery, increasing operational and recovery costs.
Market analysts believe that if global instability persists, changes in operating costs and customer demand will be inevitable. They suggest that Grameenphone should intensify its focus on cost control, tariff strategy, and cost optimization. Enhancing network resilience through backup power, supplier diversification, and rapid recovery capabilities will be essential. To maintain investor confidence, the company is also expected to provide regular updates along with clear timelines and action plans.
For investors, analysts recommend closely monitoring the situation until the next audited report is released, with particular attention to the company’s operational management and cost-control strategies. While the long-term fundamentals of the telecom sector remain strong, the company’s response and resource allocation will be critical in navigating short-term shocks.
In this context, Grameenphone stated that it will provide detailed information when it publishes its audited financial report for the first quarter of 2026.
DBTech/SMEH/MUM/OR
