Polls, Politics and Public Perception or Reform, Representation and Rising Uncertainty

Currently, 45% of mobile phone users in Bangladesh believe the country is on the right economic track, while 42% think it is on the right political path. Over the past 18 months, economic optimism has grown by 13 percentage points, but confidence in the political direction has improved by only 1 percentage point.

In October 2024, 50% of respondents cited rising commodity prices as their top concern. By July 2025, however, the absence of an elected government had become the leading issue for 18% of citizens. Over the same period, satisfaction with the interim government fell by 12 percentage points.

Against this backdrop, 51% of mobile phone users say they want reforms before elections. The largest share—30%—seek reforms to improve law and order, while 80% of respondents express concern about mob violence.

While 70% remain optimistic about a fair election, support for the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has fallen by 4.3 percentage points over the past nine months. Support for Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami declined by 0.9 percentage points, other Islamic parties by 1.6 percentage points, the banned Awami League by 1.6 percentage points, the Jatiya Party by 0.4 percentage points, and other parties by 4.1 percentage points. Meanwhile, the newly formed National Change Party (NCP) has gained 0.8 percentage points.

However, 48.5% of respondents in the phone survey still remain undecided on which party they would vote for. The joint survey was conducted by the BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD) and Voice for Reform, and released on Monday, August 11, at the National Archives Auditorium in Agargaon, Dhaka.

The overall analysis was presented by BIGD Fellow Syeda Selina Aziz. The event, presided over by Voice for Reform Co-Convener A K M Fahim Mashroor and moderated by BIGD Director of Operations, Strategy, and Partnership Mehnaz Rabbani, featured BIGD Senior Research Fellows Miraj M Hasan and Asif Shahan as discussants.

It was announced that this was the third such survey conducted since the mass uprising. Data was collected between July 1 and July 20, 2025, through phone interviews with 5,489 people across all districts—53% male and 47% female, with 73% from rural areas and 27% from urban areas.

Reform and Election Sentiment

Most participants expressed a strong demand for both elections and reforms, without prioritizing one over the other. Some 32% said elections should be held before December 2025, while 12% said by February 2026. Another 25% preferred elections after December 2026. When asked whether the upcoming national election would be free and fair, 70% responded positively, while 15% said it would not be.

On the question of voting preference, 49% said they were still undecided, up from 38% in October 2024. Among women, indecision was higher—55%, compared to 43% in October 2024.

Contrary to elite opinion, the general public is both aware of and interested in reforms. When asked about timing, 51% said elections should be held after necessary reforms are implemented, 17% supported introducing key reform agendas before the vote, 14% opposed elections until reforms are complete, and 17% had no opinion.

As for priorities, 57% emphasized changes to the police and judiciary, including improving law and order (30%), judicial reform (16%), and security (11%). Another 39% prioritized economic reforms, such as tackling the downturn and business challenges (16%), reducing commodity prices (13%), and addressing unemployment (10%). Meanwhile, 38% called for electoral and constitutional reforms, equally split between electoral change (19%) and reducing political intolerance and instability (19%). Additionally, 17% highlighted anti-corruption measures as most urgent, while 14% called for educational reform.

Public Perceptions on Politics and the Economy

Optimism about the political future has steadily declined. In July 2025, 42% believed the country was on the right political path—down from 56% in October 2024 and 71% in August 2024. Economic optimism has slightly improved, with 45% saying the country is on the right economic track in July 2025, up from 43% in October 2024.

The share of “don’t know” or “no comment” responses on political direction rose from 10% in October 2024 to 23% in July 2025, while for economic direction it grew from 5% to 18%.

Governance, Economy, and Security Now Top Concerns

In contrast to October 2024, when 50% named price hikes as the main issue, the July 2025 survey reflected more varied concerns. The absence of an elected government was cited by 18%, business or economic slowdown by 15%, deteriorating law and order by 14%, political instability by 13%, and commodity prices by just 9%.

Approval of the interim government has also dropped—from 75% in August 2024 to 68% in October, and down further to 63% in July 2025.

Mob violence is the most pressing security issue, with 80% of respondents citing it as a concern. Other worries include harassment over clothing choices (67%), nighttime safety (61%), and declining women’s safety (56%).

Mixed Reactions to Youth-Led Parties

The new political party formed by leaders of the July uprising has drawn mixed reactions. Asked if they support such youth-led parties, 45% said yes, 46% said no, and 6% were uncertain. When asked if they believed youth-led parties could survive in the political arena, 38% said yes, 36% said no, and 26% were unsure or unwilling to comment.

Those confident in their survival cited new and innovative thinking (27%), leadership emerging from the July revolution (25%), hope for positive change (24%), courage (23%), and integrity (20%). Skeptics pointed to lack of experience (53%), weak leadership (18%), lack of voter trust or popular support (15%), a culture of political intolerance, and organizational weaknesses.